The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation assessing that the UK economy is recovering, with modest growth expected this year and stronger momentum building into 2026. But global uncertainty, cautious consumers, and inflation pressures could still slow things down.
The IMF forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2025, rising to 1.4% in 2026. Business investment is picking up, and public spending from the last budget is helping support the recovery.
Inflation still a concern - but expected to ease
While inflation is expected to average 3.2% this year, the IMF estimates that it should fall back to 2.3 percent next year.
Government finances: on the right track, if plans hold
The IMF says the government’s current spending and borrowing plans are about right - encouraging growth while keeping debt in check. But it stressed the importance of sticking to the deficit reduction plan over the next five years.
Interest rates: gradual cuts make sense
With inflation still above target and the outlook uncertain, the IMF supports the Bank of England’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates.
Overall, the message is cautiously upbeat. Growth is returning, and the right policies are largely in place. But the IMF says it’s vital to prioritise long-term reforms - especially around skills, planning, and economic stability - and avoid frequent policy changes.
HMRC have proposed a new criminal offence for making reckless, untrue statements or declarations about what's known as 'direct taxes' - Income Tax, National Insurance and the like. For Customs and Excise and VAT ('indirect taxes'), it is already possible to prosecute individuals who make untrue statements or submit incorrect documents either knowingly or recklessly, without the need to prove dishonesty. The penalties for such offences can be severe, including substantial fines and imprisonment. The direct tax regime does not currently contain an equivalent offence.
A new Freedom of Information (FOI) request has discovered that health and safety violations cost British employers over £44 million per year. The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) revealed that serious breaches have resulted in an increasing number of prosecutions between 2023 and 2025.